The seasonality of the real estate market, when it is best to buy, when to sell and why the timing of the start makes a bigger difference than it seems
The seasonality of the real estate market, when it is best to buy, when to sell and why the timing of the start makes a bigger difference than it seems
The real estate market, although it concerns values counted in hundreds of thousands of zlotys and decisions made once every few years, has rhythms similar to any other market. Many people do not notice this, and in the meantime these rhythms strongly affect the number of buyers, the number of new listings, the average time to sale and, most importantly, the final transaction prices. Understanding seasonality is one of the simpler advantages one can give oneself in the process of buying or selling an apartment. In Poland, including Kraków, the yearly rhythm of the real estate market is today very clear.
The first and strongest season is spring. March, April and May are classic months of peak activity. The largest number of new listings appears, but also the largest number of active buyers. There are several reasons. First, people plan a move before the holidays so they can settle into a new apartment before the vacation season. Second, families with children plan a change of school or kindergarten, which requires a decision in early spring. Third, the days are longer, the sunlight stronger, apartments present at their best. Fourth, banks return to full activity after a quieter end to the previous year.
The second season is early autumn. September and October is the time when activity returns after the holidays. Clients who postponed their decisions to after vacation come back with concrete plans. Students look for apartments for the new academic year, which drives the rental segment in Kraków, Warsaw and Wrocław. Investors often finalize budget plans for the end of the year.
The third period, although already less intense, is the first week of November and the entire month of November. Activity is still stable, although it slowly begins to decline toward the Christmas break.
The fourth period is the winter quiet. From mid December to mid January the market clearly slows down. Buyers postpone decisions to the new year, sellers reluctantly arrange viewings during the holiday period, banks operate at reduced pace. At the same time this is the period in which sellers who want to close a transaction as quickly as possible are more inclined to concessions. For buyers with cash or a ready credit decision this is often a moment of opportunity.
The fifth period is the slow start of the new year. The second half of January and February is the warm up time. Activity grows, but for full spring revival one has to wait a few more weeks.
The sixth period is the summer break. July and August are classically vacation months. Activity drops by 20 to 30 percent. Buyers are dispersed between vacation and planning the return, sellers reluctantly arrange viewings on hot days. This in turn is another period in which offers remaining on the market become more flexible in price, and buyers ready to act can secure good conditions.
What does this mean in practice? For sellers it is crucial to choose well the moment of starting exposure. Ideally, list the offer at the end of February or in the first half of March, when the market is warming up but not yet flooded with competition. The second good moment is the end of August and the beginning of September. Listing in December or in the middle of July is often wasted effort, because activity is low and the offer cools down quickly.
For buyers seasonality gives an advantage primarily in periods of low activity. In July, August, December and early January good opportunities can be found. Sellers who have been on the market for several months are tired of the process and more open to negotiation. Moreover, less competition means the buyer has more time to decide and does not feel pressure to act quickly.
For investors it is additionally worth considering the rhythm of the rental segment. June, July, August is the time when tenants actively look for apartments before the new academic year. This is also the period when turnover is highest and rental rates reach annual peaks in the student segment. In the short term tourist rental segment the high season in Kraków is May to October and the Christmas period from December. In January, February and the first half of March occupancy drops by even half.
For people moving to Poland from abroad and for Ukrainian citizens looking for a long term apartment, March, April, May and September are the best months. The choice of offers is the largest, although so is the competition. July, August and December are the times when the choice is smaller, but price negotiations are easier.
Seasonality is, of course, not the only factor that decides the outcome of a transaction. Central bank interest rates, legal regulations, economic situation, local city development plans, all this affects the market regardless of the time of year. Nevertheless, knowledge of the yearly rhythm provides a measurable advantage, especially to those who have time flexibility in making decisions.
At Eternel we plan every transaction in the context of the current market calendar. For sellers we determine the moment of starting exposure and the pricing strategy adjusted to the current phase of the year. For buyers we point to periods when better negotiation conditions and less heated competition can be expected. The choice of property is a multidimensional decision, but the moment of start is one element on which we have direct influence, and the difference can be measurable.